At the Chicago Board of Trade, CBOT March wheat fell 12-1/4 cents to settle at $8.48 -3/4 a bushel. March corn ended down 7-1/4 cents at $7.30 a bushel, while January soyabeans settled up 2-1/2 cents at $14.74- 3/ 4 a bushel. Wheat posted the biggest percentage loss, pressured by technical selling and caution ahead of Tuesday's USDA crop data. The trade expects USDA to slightly raise its forecast of US 20112/13 wheat ending stocks, due in part to thin export demand.
Selling accelerated as the benchmark CBOT March wheat contract fell below chart support at $8.51-1/2, a level that had held for four straight sessions last week. The contract dipped to an intra-day low of $8.46-3/4, its lowest level in three weeks. Weekend news included wheat purchases by Saudi Arabia and Iraq, but traders said the United States won only a small share of the business. The drop in CBOT futures reflected "continued disappointment and concern about the US export program, and the possibility that we will raise ending stocks," said Shawn McCambridge, grains analyst with Jefferies Bache in Chicago.
"If we increase (US) ending stocks, it offsets some of that possible concern about next year's production levels," McCambridge said, acknowledging poor conditions in the southern US Plains winter wheat belt. The US hard red winter wheat crop, already weakened by dry conditions in the Plains, is facing a threat this week from damaging cold weather, a factor that limited losses in hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Board of Trade.
On the export front, Saudi Arabia bought 295,000 tonnes of hard wheat from the European Union, Australia and the United States, while Iraq bought 350,000 tonnes of wheat from Australia and Romania. Argentina will allow only 4.5 million tonnes of wheat exports this campaign, against 6 million previously planned, in response to a rain-plagued harvest, a local newspaper reported. And the USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 115,000 tonnes of US wheat to Egypt, including 60,000 tonnes of soft red winter wheat and 55,000 tonnes of soft white wheat. However, traders said the market had already factored in the news.